Industry Updates - Volume 6

March has seen warnings of a 4th Wave, emergency use approval for a 1-shot vaccine and an increase in vaccine sales. Volume 6 looks at these headlines and more.
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Global Pandemic

• Global caseload up to almost 120 Million cases, 2.6 Million deaths
• World Health Organization and CDC in U.S. issued warnings for a '4th Wave' of Covid-19 cases, triggered by more contagious COVID-19 variants from UK, South Africa, Brasil, elsewhere
• However, the overall trend in new infections/deaths has been trending downwards in many countries for almost two months
• U.S. situation is complex - 20+ states have seen increases in infections in recent weeks, even as a number of states - led by 2nd most populous state Texas (29 million people) - cancelled mask mandates and are opening up
• Vaccination programs in two major countries - U.S. and the UK - have significant momentum 
  • U.S. now at 2+ million vaccinations/day; Biden administration projects there will be sufficient vaccines for everyone who wants to take them by May
  • 312 Million vaccinations world-wide
  • 2/3rds of all doses have been administered in U.S., UK, China, EU Countries
  • 100 countries still without any vaccinations
• Israel reached vaccine doses administered of 7.5 Million, compared with its population aged 15 or older of 6.7 Million
  • Covid infections in the 50+ age group have fallen from 25% to 11% of new infections, while 47% are in the 19 or younger age group
  • Israel re-opening large venues (e.g., sports stadiums, concert halls) allowing access to Green digital passport holders which attest to full vaccination or antibodies from prior infection
  • Fears however as to the risks from the South African variant which has arrived; and the ‘R Rate’ still stubbornly close to 1, vs. 0.5-0.7 if the Pandemic is subsiding.

Industry

• Johnsons & Johnson (J&J) one-shot vaccine was given EUA on 28 February
  • U.S. efficacy of 72% (but lower elsewhere, presumably due to new COVID-19 variants) compared to 94% for the mRNA competitors
  • Leading officials - including Dr, Fauci and the acting FDA Commissioner Janet Woodcock - stated that there is no real difference between these vaccines w.r.t. to serious outcomes
  • People should simply take whatever they can get
  • White House brokered deal between rivals Merck, J&J to increase production of J&J’s vaccine
• Research shows that Pfizer vaccine produced 67% less antibodies against the South African variant; and Moderna produced 83% less antibodies
  • Implications for protection not clear; both companies are working on new vaccines (or booster shots for those previously inoculated) against South African variant
• AstraZeneca expected to announce shortly that it has achieved enough events in its Stage 3 American trial to read data and make application to the FDA for EUA
• The European Medicines Agency (EMA) has commenced a review of the Russian Sputnik V vaccine; officials cautioned that they have not received the data required on vaccinated people
  • Surveys in Russia found that 60% of Russians did not trust the Sputnik vaccine
• The Chairman of Sinopharm - which has previously announced 79% efficacy for their WIV vaccine - said it was effective against new variants, including the South African variant
• Reuters reported that Sinovac was effective against the Brazilian variant
• Sinovac announced an updated efficacy rate from its Turkish trial of 83.5%
  • Mexico, Thailand, The Philippines, and Hong Kong have approved Sinovac’s WIV vaccine
  • Meanwhile, Ukraine fined local distributor of Sinovac for failing to deliver the vaccine on time
• In India, Bharat announced Stage 3 results of its WIV vaccine, showing 81% efficacy
• The WHO has granted EUA to Pfizer, Moderna, and AstraZeneca and will review next Sinopharm, Sinovac and J&J.

Financial news

• Bharat sold 20 Million doses of its WIV vaccine to Brazil for U.S. $290 Million ($14.50/shot), even before it had its Stage 3 trial results
  • Mexico on the verge of approving Bharat’s vaccine
• AstraZeneca sold its stake in Moderna for approx U.S. $1 Billion, but has not disclosed when this occurred; current market value of the stake would be close to U.S. $4 Billion
• Moderna is forecasting Covid-19 vaccine sales of U.S. $18.4 Billion this year; compares with total sales revenue for all products at AstraZeneca last year of U.S. $26 Billion
• Pfizer is projecting U.S. $15 Billion in Covid-19 vaccine sales this year
• J&J expected COVID-19 vaccine sales this year: Up to U.S. $10 Billion
• AstraZeneca expected COVID-19 sales this year: U.S. $6.4 Billion
• Other players - Sinovac, Gamaleya, Novavax - all expecting U.S. $ Billions in sales
• Average price points across existing suppliers: U.S. $20 - U.S. $40 for two-dose shots
• G7 pledged U.S. $4.7 Billion to help finance global equitable access to tests, treatments and vaccines; compares with the U.S. $22 Billion estimated that is needed just to vaccinate the world's poorer countries.​

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