Industry Updates Volume 17

Omicron wanes, but leaves more death in its wake

• Over the past four weeks, the number of new Omicron infections recorded in the U.S.A. has dropped dramatically from a peak of 800K+ on 15 January to just 66K on 26 February
• A similar pattern has been seen in the European Union, where the peak of 1.25M+ infections occurred on 28 January and has now dropped to 475K
• Total COVID deaths in the European Union just passed 1 Million and the U.S.A. has reached 950K​

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• The Appendix shows that Rest-of-World countries did not suffer Delta and Omicron surges equivalent in magnitude to the more advanced countries
  
• Even their smaller Omicron surges experienced, have also reduced substantially.
  

Europe Re-Opens - The "All Clear"?

• While there are other minor variants being watched by the WHO, there does not seem to be an immediate threat of another highly virulent strain of COVID
  
• Europe has mostly decided to ‘re-open’, including Denmark, UK, Greece, France, Portugal, Sweden and Norway - other EU countries are likely to follow
  
• However, Omicron infections are currently still growing fast in Iceland, Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea, New Zealand and Hong Kong
  
  • Note that most of these countries largely followed an ‘isolation’ or ‘Zero Covid’ approach.
    

Israel as a Case Study - Vaccination No Longer Counts?

• Israel was the first country to inoculate most of its population with 2 shots; also the first to insist on 3rd shot, in order to retain a digital certificate required to attend events; and the first to offer a 4th shot
  
• All shots were Pfizer
  
• Despite the high levels of vaccination, 3.5M of Israel's 9.5M population got COVID
  
  • 1.5M of them in the last 2 months
    
• Israel has now ordered 5M shots of Novavax vaccine as a heterologous booster, although it is not clear if this will be deployed
  
• Israel had severely restricted access for non-citizens over the past two years 
  
• From 1st March 2022, it is completely reopening its borders to all, irrespective of vaccination status
  
  • Israel will no longer ask for proof of vaccination, but will require a PCR test before/after arrival.
    

Vaccine Equity - Africa 

• The % vaccinated in Africa has reached 18%, and sufficient supplies are now available and even now exceed the logistical ability to deploy them
  
• The African Union has asked for a pause in supplies this month 
  
• Part of the log jam has been caused by widespread hesitancy to take a COVID vaccine
  
• The debate about local strategic manufacturing goes on
  
  • The WHO is working with Afrigen in South African to develop a near copy of the Moderna vaccine
    
  • They have ambitious plans to manufacture this mRNA vaccine at 6 sites in Africa: Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa and Tunisia
    
  • However without cooperation from Moderna there are doubts whether this will progress from the Lab to successful manufacture at scale 
    
• BionTech is promoting a 12 transport container ‘modular’ manufacturing facility that would be used to manufacture 40M doses/annually of the Pfizer/Biontech mRNA vaccine
  
  • Still in development and likely not ready for deployment until 2023.
    

New Vaccines

• Novavax’s protein-based vaccine is now available for use in 170 countries, including approval by the UK regulator, and has filed for use with 10 different regulatory agencies, including the U.S.A. 
  
• Canada’s Medicago COVID protein-based vaccine - based on tobacco leaves - now approved in Canada  
  
• Stephane Bancel, the CEO of Moderna, has stated that he believes the COVID Pandemic is now over, but annual boosters will be required.
  

Refana progress

• Refana's Delta variant-based WIV COVID vaccine has successfully achieved its Proof of Concept (POC) objectives in our testing work at the Illinois Institute of Technology Research Institute (IITRI)
  
  • The vaccinated transgenic mice exhibited good levels of protection
    
  • There was a variation from low to extremely high protection between the mice
    
  • The serum of the vaccinated mice successfully neutralized both the Delta and the Wuhan strains
    
  • As expected for a Delta specific vaccine, the effect was noticeably stronger against Delta
    
• The animals have not been subject to a live challenge 
  
• Refana should have the Proof of Concept report and full data tables next week
  
• The Team is now exploring recently made available non-dilutive funding opportunities in both the public and private sectors that would enhance both our vaccine development and our modular manufacturing strategy
  
  • Recent RFPs have been released by multiple agencies
    
  • Refana is investigating its approaches to respond to those opportunities
    
  • As these opportunities further develop, we’ll share more info on them with our Investors.
    

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Appendix

Cumulative COVID-19 Deaths

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Daily New Confirmed COVID-19 Cases

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Daily New Confirmed COVID-19 Deaths

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